Ottawa, Canada
July 10, 2009

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Grains and oilseeds outlook

Statistics Canada’s (STC) June seeded area survey indicates that for 2009-10 Canadian farmers have increased the areas seeded to spring wheat, corn, flaxseed and soybeans, and reduced the areas of durum, barley, oats, canola and summerfallow. Total production is forecast by AAFC to decrease by 19% to 58.9 million tonnes (Mt), due to higher abandonment and below-normal yields resulting from the delayed seeding and cool temperatures across western Canada and the abnormally dry conditions in the western prairies. Total supplies are forecast to fall by 12% as large carry-in stocks moderate the decline in output. Both domestic use and exports are forecast to decline. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 26% to 9.9 Mt, well below the 10 year average of over 13 Mt. Average prices are expected to be lower than in 2008-09 for all crops except barley and rye. Factors to watch include the delayed crop development and dry growing conditions across western Canada.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/26831g.pdf

Pulses and special crops outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)

For 2009-10, total area seeded to P&SC in Canada is expected to rise marginally from 2008-09. The areas seeded to lentils, chickpeas and mustard seed are expected to increase while areas seeded to dry peas, dry beans, canary seed and sunflower seed are expected to decrease. Statistics Canada’s (STC) recently released its preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas for 2009, which provided estimates for most pulse and special crops by province, but in some
cases the area seeded has been forecast by AAFC.
Total production in Canada is forecast to be fall by 10% to 4.8 million tonnes (Mt). However, total supply is expected to rise by 5% to 5.6 Mt, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports and domestic use are forecast to rise due to the higher supply. Total carry-out stocks are expected to fall from 2008-09, largely due to lower expected dry pea stocks. Average prices are generally forecast to fall, but remain historically high, except for chickpeas, canary seed and sunflower seed which are forecast to average the same as 2008-09.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/26831p.pdf

Website: http://www.agr.gc.ca

Published: July 10, 2009